In life one can only be certain of three things: deaths, taxes and (for the past three years at least) La Nina.
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On Tuesday (September 13) the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) declared a La Nina weather event had begun for the third consecutive year.
In short it means Australia's eastern mainland and Tasmania are in for another wet summer, the third since the horrific black summer bushfires that tore through the aforementioned areas.
But how does the BOM figure this out?
Remind me what La Nina is
BOM's head of long range forecasts Dr Andrew Watkins explained what caused the wet conditions La Nina is known for.
"During La Nina events, waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal, and waters in the western tropical Pacific Ocean warmer than normal," he said.
"This causes changes in wind, cloud and pressure patterns over the Pacific.
"When this change in the atmosphere combines with changes in ocean temperature, it can influence global weather patterns and climate, including increasing rainfall over large parts of Australia".
But it's not all gloomy. The BOM said the 2022/23 La Nina is expected to be 'weak to moderate' in strength, meaning we could see most of the rainfall in spring before it eases in summer.
So don't pack away the sunscreen just yet.
What does it mean for Orange?
The Central West has copped plenty of the wet stuff over the past two years in particular so don't expect too much to change until summer at the earliest.
Heavy flooding in Molong, sport being cancelled and impressive thunderstorms and lightning strikes have very much been part of Orange's landscape.
In April, Orange SES responded to a flurry of calls after a thunderstorm swept through the city.
Orange's average annual rainfall is just over 900mm, a figure beaten in 2020 and 2021. This year looks to be headed in the same direction with 775 millimetres recorded in the first eight months.
In August, the city notched its highest rainfall in over a decade with 166.8mm recorded at Orange Airport.
Those numbers capped off an impressive winter season with 287.6mm falling across the three months. In fact, the winter of 2021 also saw high rainfall following a La Nina with 426mm recorded.
These numbers have officials concerned with dams and rivers already swollen.
The SES have wasted no time in urging people to be vigilant with conditions ideal for more flooding.
"Today's declaration means eastern Australia is heading into a third consecutive La Nina season, which presents unique risks and challenges," Commissioner Carlene York said on Tuesday.
"There is already wet soil, high rivers and full dams right across our State, and with more rain on the horizon comes the very real possibility of flooding.
"If you live in a flood-prone area, I urge you to take steps to prepare now. Make sure you know your risk, have an up-to-date emergency plan and emergency kit. Preparing early will save you vital time during an emergency."
