The housing scene in Orange is still in recovery mode after the wrath of COVID-19 contributed to skyrocketing building costs.
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Throw in a record 30-year-high inflation level, whopping interest rates and the rising cost of living, and it leaves a ton of questions up in the air.
Since 1980, Finder's research shows housing prices have risen by 1010 per cent. It's 24 times the yearly rate compared to salaries going up.
Experience of the market from "both sides of the fence", the Central Western Daily caught up with Belle Property's former agent, Adam Scimone about Orange's housing scene.
Moving back to the big smoke in April, Mr Scimone launched his real estate career in Sydney in 2005 and then relocated to Orange in 2012. Working in property management and sales since 2015, he said the contrasts between then and now for the housing market are significant.
There were about 800 to 900 properties on the market for sale when he first arrived in Orange, with about 50 inspections in one week.
"There were crazy numbers when it came to homes for sale, it was a smorgasbord for a buyer," Mr Scimone said.
"Now, 10 years later, we were at just 365 properties on the market on March 15."
There's an understandable fear for homebuyers with rising costs and landlords are forced to drive their rent up. What's the building scene like?
A lot [of homebuyers] in the current climate do feel the fear of rising costs and that's across a whole host of generations.
The local market is starting to stabilise now, but that construction pricing skyrocketed during 2022 and added to peoples' fears around spending.
Inflation turns around and puts the price of building costs up which is not making sense at the moment. It is concerning, because it's costing so much more to build now.
But generally, buyers are very cautious and there's a lot of noise in the background with banks in America going under.
So there's this real uncertainty for people with not knowing what the building costs attached to their buy will end up being.
Sale prices nearly doubled for blocks of land during the pandemic. How's it all looking now?
A decent block of land in Orange sat around the $100,000 to $160,000 mark, with a basic house thrown on top another $300,000. Then you'd rent it out, it made sense.
But those same blocks of land are now selling anywhere from $350,000 to $400,000 and to put the average house on them is another $400,000 to $450,000 on top.
People are already in more than 800,000 grand deep by that stage and the timber shortage played a massive role in that during the last 12 months.
And the past 18 months were crazy with COVID and tree changers relocating to the region, so land and property values went berserk.
That demand meant that stock levels dropped as a result and they're still very low.
If we look at 'city vs country' factors, how is the region's market fairing in comparison?
There's about 50 to 60 blocks on the market now but 12 months ago, there were none.
We're still down on stock and it's going to get worse, because land development in Orange has always been a little bit behind.
But Orange seems to weather the storms and compared to Sydney's median average price, we're sitting at the $700,000 mark for a decent home in a decent suburb.
- Adam Scimone talks Orange's current housing market.
Those average prices for houses in Sydney are currently sitting at beyond the $1.4 million mark, with the median price of a unit going for almost $750,000.
The current interest rate is sitting at 3.85 per cent, inflation at 7.8 per cent, and the cost of living is hard to keep up with. Why are properties still selling regardless?
The handbrake has been slightly pulled up and Australia's [Consumer Price Index] is projected to fall by about 3 per cent by the end of 2024.
That's why we're encouraging people to start building again, but something's also got to give. Whether that's building costs coming down or land costs coming down, something needs to happen there.
People are still getting that value for money out here [in Orange] compared to major cities like Sydney, but like anything with stock, if supply chains' levels are down, then building and buying slows down.
Land sales are now the biggest drop on the market because of it.
The number of rental properties has gone up in Orange, but there's still the pinch of rising costs. What's this space looking like for tenants?
There's still a shortage of homes but compared to about 18 months ago, there were about 20 rental properties up for grabs in Orange and now, there's around 170.
Immigration is back on full pelt along with other post-COVID factors and while they're starting to soften a bit, unfortunately rents have gone up.
There are more choices for tenants now and the rental scene isn't competitive here like it is in Sydney - they'll have lines at open houses just for a unit that'll stretch back 100 metres.
But it's finding the right tenant that's become the most difficult part for agents, and the customer they're trying to lease the home on behalf of.
While the whole 'fighting each other' for a rental has lessened, the people applying for them aren't always a catch.
- Adam Scimone on market pros and cons with tenants.
For four bedroom, two bathroom homes in Orange at the moment, we'd generally get anywhere from three to five applicants.
But from those [applicants], maybe only one or two will come to the table with good employment and rental history though and that's our biggest problem.
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