Impacts of climate change on Orange revealed in NSW DPIE's draft 2022 Regional Water Strategy

Those are the findings of the NSW Department of Planning and Environment's recently-published 2022 Macquarie-Castlereagh Regional Water Strategy draft.

The paper outlines modelling for possible climate change trajectories this century and lays out a plan to ensure water security as the region grows during the next 20 to 40 years.

It does not predict catastrophic outcomes are necessarily going to happen, but outlines a water policy plan compatible with scientific modelling's worst-case "dry future" scenario.

Projections for the region under this model show longer and more severe droughts by 2070, reduced rainfall, evaporation increases of up to five per cent, and a 50 per cent inflow drop to the Burrendong Dam.

The frequency of significant dry spells in Orange, Bathurst, Dubbo and surrounding towns could also increase by more than 3000 per cent - from once every 1000 years to once every 30 years.

"We need to prepare now for a future where water sources and services may come under even greater stress," the 162-page report says.

"We don't know for certain what the climate will be like. It may be similar to what we have experienced in the past or it may be more variable than we have seen in our lifetimes."

This worst-case scenario would have dire consequences on the region's agriculture and mining industries, environmental assists, and ability to supply tap water year-round.

"If practices don't change we could see a 45 per cent reduction in profit generated by irrigated annual agriculture [by 2070]," the DPIE paper says.

" ... [Protecting ecology] will become increasingly difficult under a drier future climate, where the potential for extended dry periods could increase the risk for many critical environmental assets."

The papers lays out a five-point draft plan to reduce water risk, ensure supply to lower river systems, insulate the economy against drought, improve the health of ecosystems, and address Aboriginal water rights.

Orange City Council was briefed on the findings of the paper last month, the Central Western Daily understands.

The full report can be accessed via the NSW Department of Planning and Environment.

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