There's a clear trend emerging in the 2024 Peter McDonald Premiership.
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We're only four rounds in (five if you are Lithgow Workies and Bathurst Panthers) but you can already see teams sorting themselves into two groups.
Panthers, Orange CYMS, Mudgee Dragons, Parkes Spacemen, Dubbo CYMS, Wellington Cowboys, Macquarie Raiders and Bathurst St Pat's make up the top eight.
In ninth place is Forbes Magpies, followed by Orange Hawks, Workies and Nyngan Tigers.
Magpies lost to the top two first up before breaking through against the Cowboys on Sunday at the Graveyard.
Given their roster and preseason hype I think it's safe to say Forbes will be at least in the top eight if not a contender.
From there it's a bit of a drop off.
![Nine doesn't fit into eight, so which contender will miss out on finals? Nine doesn't fit into eight, so which contender will miss out on finals?](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/131358433/3c1cadc6-841d-4051-bca8-778966b3f0f7.jpg/r0_0_1920_1080_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
Hawks have not started well and while there have been moments (a first half against Dubbo CYMS and a opening win against Lithgow), they have failed to hit the heights of 2023 so far.
It won't get easier for them in Sunday's derby with star fullback Ryan Manning under an injury cloud after suffering a calf injury.
Below them Workies and Nyngan are facing a long winter and any finals appearance would be nothing short of a miracle.
Hawks have enough talent to play finals and as mentioned above it's very early days, they are only 10th after all, but the quality of the sides above them could pose a problem.
Those teams have all shown why they could win the comp.
Panthers are getting it done against highly fancied opposition, are they perhaps the Hawks of 2024?
Orange CYMS are resurgent and boast one of the best rosters while Mudgee, Parkes and the Fishies need no explanation.
Wellington looks even better than last year and Saints have been hot and cold but when they are on they have been scary.
The Raiders have also shown what they are capable with a Dubbo derby victory in round one and cannot be dismissed.
So, it all begs the question - who is going to miss out?
Each of the above nine sides could reasonably make a case for the top four, if not the premiership.
It's what is making this year's competition so genuinely enthralling, games are close and sides like Panthers and Orange CYMS are really causing the likes of Dubbo and Mudgee to sit up and take notice.
If I had to make a call I'd say it's the Raiders who will be the unlucky team.
Of course anything could happen in the next three months but having to play the Fishies, Magpies and Spacemen twice plus away trips to Wellington and Orange CYMS will prove challenging.
But long may this unpredictable season continue.