Melbourne Cup: Gold Trip, Vauban or Without A Fight? How to pick a winner

Irish raider Vauban, Caulfield Cup winner Without A Fight and defending champion Gold Trip have quickly emerged as the primary contenders to win the 3200m staying test.

The trio are the only runners currently with single figure odds on the Bet365 market, with Chris Waller's Soulcombe on the next line of betting at $11.

The Melbourne Cup, however, is the one race where unpredictability is the only certainty and punters must think long and hard before jumping on the favourite.

So who are the contenders? With the field set, barriers drawn and jockeys declared, here is all you need to know about this year's race.

All the talk in the lead up to the race has centred around one horse. Vauban.

The French-bred horse has been the favourite for a number of weeks, having won his past two races since transitioning from jumps to the flat.

Vauban currently sits at $4 and has impressed many experts since arriving in Australia, however his odds have drifted over the weekend.

The six-year-old has won seven of 14 starts, including three Group One hurdles and two black-type races on the flat over 2400m.

As has become the norm in recent years, Vauban headlines a lengthy list of international raiders looking to claim Australia's great race.

Vauban's stablemate Absurde has firmed into $12 and won the 2816m Ebor Handicap in his last start in August.

Japanese-trained runner Breakup has also found some love in the market, but his task became much tougher after Saturday's barrier draw.

The six-year-old will jump from gate 18 and must improve on recent runs if he is to prevail.

Breakup finished eighth in the Caulfield Cup and hasn't won since last November, where he claimed a 2500m Group Two race in Tokyo.

The pedigree of European bred long-distance horses has seen Australia's biggest stables scour the UK and French markets in search of their own Melbourne Cup contender.

It's quickly developed into a tried and tested formula, with 2022 winner Gold Trip the latest in a long line of horses to thrive since moving south.

The Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained runner defied history when he carried the top weight to victory last year and he's been penalised with an extra kilogram this week.

Gold Trip is in form, having dominated the Turnbull Stakes and run well in the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate. Currently a $7 contender, he's considered one of Vauban's biggest threats.

The favourite's other chief rival is Without A Fight ($6.50), a gelding who has enjoyed instant success since joining Anthony and Sam Freedman's stable after last year's Melbourne Cup.

The Irish-bred gelding has won three of four starts this year including the Caulfield Cup.

Jockey Mark Zahra knows what it takes to win the Melbourne Cup after guiding Gold Trip to victory last year. The fact he chose to ride the horse over the defending champion highlights Zahra's confidence in his new mount.

Soulcombe is another UK-bred horse to be purchased by Australian owners, and won in his first start at Flemington last November.

The five-year-old is a proven stayer and runs in the Turnbull and Caulfield Cup suggest he'll be at his best on Tuesday.

Unfortunately these are few and far between but there is a pair of locals the nation can get behind.

Vow And Declare ($29) carried the weight of the nation to a Melbourne Cup victory in 2019 and while he's struggled to replicate that form, the Danny O'Brien-trained gelding has shown glimpses of his best in his last two starts.

The eight-year-old finished second in both the Caulfield Stakes and Moonee Valley Gold Cup and is ready to step up to 3200m.

Right You Are ($61) is a So You Think gelding who was bred to stay and won the 2400m Mornington Cup in April.

He showed promise in the Caulfield Cup and history has shown Maher-Eustace trained horses are always in the mix.

In a race as wide open as the Melbourne Cup, there is plenty of value to be found in the market.

At $151, True Marvel is the biggest outsider in the field and won a 3200m hurdle in May. Since then, however, he's struggled and a victory on Tuesday is unlikely.

Daiqonsweet Junior ($101) is another horse with form over the two-mile journey, having won the 2022 Adelaide Cup and finished sixth in last year's Melbourne Cup. Since then, however, the New Zealand runner has finished mid-pack or worse in his five starts this year.

There were some promising signs with a fourth-placed finish in a small field in last month's Herbert Power and punters chasing a long-odds winner will be hoping for improvement on that run if they throw their money behind Daiqonsweet Junior.

Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott duo Military Mission ($41) and Serpentine ($71) are also at long odds but will likely hit the front early and look to be in the mix at the finish.

1.Gold Trip (barrier 2) 58.5kg

2.Alenquer (9) 56.5kg

3.Without A Fight (16) 56.5kg

4.Breakup (18) 55kg

5.Vauban (3) 55kg

6.Soulcombe (4) 53.5kg

7.Absurde (8) 53kg

8.Right You Are (15) 53kg

9.Vow And Declare (19) 53kg

10.Cleveland (23) 51.5kg

11.Ashrun (11) 51.5kg

12.Daqiansweet Junior (12) 51.5kg

13.Okita Soushi (20) 51.5kg

14.Sheraz (22) 51.5kg

15.Lastotchka (21) 51kg

16.Magical Lagoon (7) 51kg

17.Military Mission (5) 51kg

18.Serpentine (1) 51kg

19.Virtuous Circle (6) 51kg

20.More Felons (24) 50.5kg

21.Future History (13) 50kg

22.Interpretation (17) 50kg

23.Kalapour (14) 50kg

24.True Marvel (10) 50kg