The escalating trade war between the world's two biggest economies, the US and China, has worried investors and retarded share markets all year.
Each time there appears to be progress shares rise and when negotiations collapse they fall.
New talks are scheduled for early October. "Consultations" will take place in mid September, referring to which the Chinese have said, "Both sides agree they should work together and take practical actions to create favourable conditions for the negotiations".
This sounds encouraging.
The time may have come when both sides want a resolution. On the US side it has become clear that Trumpenomics isn't working.
Figures show that manufacturing activity in China, the US and Europe have all been slowing gradually in recent months.
It's not huge but the trend is in the wrong direction, the opposite of what President Trump would want entering an election year. He will not want an ongoing major dispute with China during his re-election campaign. He will want to be able to claim victory.
A solution must be found that enables both Trump and President Xi of China to look like winners. The Chinese must save face. Creating joint winners may be the difficult part. There are big differences between the US and China that make it difficult for each to understand the other's views.
The Chinese will be well aware of President Trump's short-term needs and may well provide a solution that allows him to claim victory but gives them the long-term advantage.Money Matters columnist Russell Tym
China has been a world leader for most of the last 2000 years, only falling behind during its communism experiment, and still sees itself as such.
The US has been a global leader for around 150 years. The Chinese Government has far more power and control and doesn't have to answer to its people regularly.
It thinks and plans very long term whereas the US thinks mostly in four-year electoral cycles. The US's approach is much more reactive.
Household savings are much higher in China than the US and most other countries.
China's central power has allowed it to devalue its currency when the US has imposed tariffs, blunting or negating their effect.
It understands economics very well and applies strategies selectively for its benefit.
China exports much more to the US than the US does to China, giving the US an advantage in imposing tariffs.
However, China is taking steps to stimulate its internal economy so it is less dependent on exports. It recently reduced the reserves its banks must hold and encouraged them to lend more.
The Chinese will be well aware of President Trump's short-term needs and may well provide a solution that allows him to claim victory but gives them the long-term advantage.
Regardless, shares and financial markets will jump if there is a resolution.
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