REGULAR readers may have noticed the absence of this column from the Central Western Daily over the past three weeks.
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An enjoyable holiday in England was the reason. While focusing more on leisure than finance and economics it appears the British economy is doing relatively well.
In London nearly every row of parked cars and every traffic light queue seemed to include a Rolls Royce or a Bentley.
Late-model Bentley convertibles seemed especially popular. Perhaps this is a barometer of the British economy. It appears to be doing much better than most of Europe.
On the other hand the high luxury car representation may simply reflect the ability and preparedness to pay London’s congestion tax, the tax to drive your car in central London. There certainly weren’t many old bangers in the city.
Regardless, the British economy is recovering strongly from the 2008-09 global financial crisis. The English motto of “keep calm and carry on” is clearly paying off.
The nation’s gross domestic product grew 3.0 per cent in the year to March 2014. This compares well with growth of just 0.7 per cent over the previous year. The UK economy is forecast to grow 3.1 per cent in 2014, the fastest of any G7 country.
The UK unemployment rate has fallen to 6.5 per cent, with 121,000 more people employed in the last three months. It is now at a six-year low.
Average wages grew just 0.7 per cent over the last year while inflation was 1.9 per cent over the period.
Unions argue that this indicates more jobs are low-paid and part-time, however, employment at 73.1 per cent is at its equal highest ever.
Self-employment in Britain is at its highest level since records began in 1992. At 4.5 million, the self-employed have increased by 404,000 over the last year.
To the casual observer, shops, hotels and restaurants in tourist areas all appeared to be doing very well.
Of course the climate makes such businesses very seasonal so they need to do well in summer. There was little evidence of empty shops or serious oversupply of commercial accommodation.
The pound sterling has been rising against most other currencies. Many people expect interest rates to start increasing before the end of 2014 because of the strength of the economy. Most home buyers are expecting higher mortgage payments soon.
On these measures the United Kingdom appears to be doing better than nearly all European countries except Germany.
It seems to have played a very smart hand in linking with the European Union to gain access and trading advantages, while retaining its own currency, giving it flexibility.
One issue that is worrying the English greatly is the vote by the Scots on independence. The referendum on whether Scotland should be an independent country will take place on September 14. Indications are that the result will be close.
Scotland currently has a degree of autonomy within the UK, including its own parliament. The Scottish National Party is promoting the Yes case while opposition parties Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat in Scotland are all opposed.
The government in London is also opposed. Most English people say that incomes are lower in Scotland and it receives subsidies from the Westminster Government. They believe the region doesn’t have enough resources to do well on its own.
The UK faces a general election in May, 2015, just 10 months away. Despite the good economic leadership from the government, which has allowed the recovery to develop successfully, many people expect the current government to lose to Labour.
One factor that may affect the outcome is the possibility that popular, idiosyncratic London mayor Boris Johnson may stand for parliament for the Conservatives and contest the leadership.