Like Donald Trump's presidential victory, the savage backlash against the Nationals in the Orange byelection caught most by surprise.
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Internal polling was showing a big swing against the Nationals, but not enough to lose them the seat. And certainly not to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party.
Was the emphatic rejection of the party a consequence of the NSW government's aborted bid to ban greyhound racing - brought forward by soon-to-be-replaced Nationals leader Troy Grant - or its decision to force local councils to merge - led by another Nationals minister, Paul Toole?
Or, given the unexpected success of Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Philip Donato, have we witnessed a hyper-local version of the global rejection of mainstream political parties being blamed, at least in part, for the Trump result in the United States?
The reality is likely to be a bit of all three.
Certainly the feedback from polling booths was that amalgamations and greyhounds were front of mind for voters.
One Nationals MP said of the feedback: "The vitriol out there targeted at Grant was palpable. The language was filthy. The messages I was being asked to send back to him are unprintable."
An Australian Manufacturing Workers Union poll published by Fairfax Media in September indicated a collapse in the Nationals' primary vote in Orange and a surge in the "other" party vote.
When the pollster, ReachTel, investigated further, it found most "other" voters had Pauline Hanson's One Nation in mind. One Nation was not registered for the Orange byelection.
The Shooters - whose candidate was being strongly backed by broadcaster Ray Hadley - appear to have been the beneficiaries.
That will be food for thought for Labor and the Coalition before the next general election in 2019.
In any case, the Orange result has turned what otherwise should have been a byelection of minor consequence into a war among senior Nationals over the NSW division's future.
It has guaranteed Grant's leadership - in question since the greyhound industry announcement - is finally brought to a head.
The winner from all of this - apart from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers - is opposition leader Luke Foley.
Orange was one of three byelections on Saturday, the others being in Wollongong and Canterbury.
The Labor candidates held their own in those polls, too.
The wins - and the turmoil in the Nationals - will put a spring in the step of the Foley opposition as Parliament enters its final sitting week for 2016.
LETTER: BYELECTION LESSONS MUST BE REMEMBERED
THE recent byelection should have been a lesson for the people of Orange and the arrogance of the Nationals Party.
It has happened, the big swing that the electorate had to happen because of the Nationals attitude and the arrogance of the leader Troy Grant.
The lesson has been delivered and taught and now that it has happened the people of Orange and district must keep it up by making the necessary demands upon government so that it governs for the district and governs to suit the district’s needs.
Promises are no good unless they are accompanied by direct and suitable action.