If Mike Baird’s performance in NSW is a lesson for politicians in getting things done, then the prime minister's performance since taking the reins a year ago has been quite the opposite.

Mr Turnbull is suffering the same pain at the polls as Mr Baird, but he is doing so without the satisfaction that his policy reforms are being pushed through parliament.

Progressives across Australia – even those who traditionally vote Labor – celebrated Mr Turnbull’s rise to the leadership of Liberal Party as a critical step in finally securing the passage of same-sex marriage legislation.

Mr Turnbull has long been a vocal supporter of same-sex marriage and his Sydney electorate is home to one of the country’s largest gay and lesbian populations.

His stance often put him in opposition even with his own Coalition colleagues but it was hoped his arrival at The Lodge would finally end years of inaction in this area.

That has not proved to be the case.

Instead, Mr Turnbull has found himself held hostage by many of the more conservative MPs in his own party room who remain determined to block same-sex marriage reforms for as long as they can.

It was those same politicians who demanded the Coalition go to the July election with a policy of running a plebiscite on same-sex marriage if returned to parliament – a position voters sense that Mr Turnbull has never been comfortable with.

He only agreed to it to secure the numbers he needed to roll Tony Abbott in the leadership poll last year.

Increasingly, though, it looks like the issue of same-sex marriage is in danger of going down the same path as the republic debate almost two decades ago when disagreements over process won out over the general consensus.

Polls in 1999 showed most Australians supported a republic but the referendum was defeated on the question of just how an Australian president should be elected.

Similarly, polls in recent years have consistently showed majority support for same-sex marriage but the issue has been stalled by a debate over whether it should first go to a plebiscite before a vote on the floor of parliament.

The only winners in this debate are opponents of same-sex marriage who must be barely able to believe their luck at the way this debacle is playing out.