It's hard to imagine that less than three years ago, Orange residents were worrying about when their taps would run dry.
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The city was in the grip of severe drought, living under Level 5 water restrictions and on the verge of Level 6.
Then, just when it felt like it would never rain again, it did.
By the end of 2020, water restrictions were being eased, and by the end of last year Orange's main water storage, Suma Park Dam, was overflowing again. Last year, there was so much rain that the dam overflowed almost continuously for more than six months.
Right now, Orange has plenty of water. But if there's one thing you can count on, it's more droughts, and with a changing climate they're going to be even more intense.
Climate change is predicted to result in an average warming of 0.7 degrees in the Central West and Orana region by 2039, resulting in less rainfall and higher rates of evaporation.
Modelling estimates there will be an annual loss of more than 600 megalitres, or eight per cent per of Orange's water supply from its current water infrastructure due to climate change.
At the same time, Orange's population is growing.
The pandemic fuelled a wave of migration to Orange that saw the city struggle to keep up with housing demand. By 2060, the city's population is expected to have swelled to almost 60,000.
Will there be enough water to sustain the growing population? And to cope with the inevitable droughts?
Up to the task?
Orange City council spent millions shoring up the water supply after the Millennium Drought of the early 2000s. Projects included the 37km Macquarie River pipeline, the raising of the Suma Park Dam wall and the Blackmans Swamp Creek Stormwater Harvesting Scheme.
Yet, during the last drought, water levels dropped so low that there was talk of Day Zero - when the water would run out.
Since then, there's been concern from the community that not enough has been done to stop it happening all over again.
But Orange City Council says the city's water supply will be up to the task.
Technical Services Director Ian Greenham says since the last drought, council has improved water efficiencies with the construction of the six-kilometre pipeline from Spring Creek Dam to the Icely Road Water Treatment Plant. This prevents water being lost on the way through the current open creek transfer system.
Next on the agenda is Stage Two of the Blackmans Swamp Creek Stormwater Harvesting Project, which is expected to add an additional 600 M/L annually to Orange's water supply.
Looking further ahead, options that could supplement Orange's water supply could include a larger allocation from the Macquarie pipeline and purchasing bulk water supply from Central Tablelands Water after the proposed Lake Rowlands upgrade.
Purified recycled water is another option that may be investigated, Mr Greenham said.
Water use is also being tackled from the demand side of things.
During the last drought, the council ran an education campaign in conjunction with restrictions and in October 2020, adopted permanent water saving restrictions, regardless of the city's water storage level.
Monthly water consumption is now well down on what it was five years ago - in the first four months of the year, Orange residents were using between 20 and 40 per cent less than they were at the same time in 2017. Mr Greenham says industrial usage is down too.
Council's Integrated Water Cycle Management Strategy, which sets out a plan for water security, will be reviewed this year.
Secure until 2060
Orange City Council's recently released draft local housing strategy looked at two population growth scenarios for Orange.
The first was a based on a medium growth rate of 0.8 per cent a year (Orange has averaged about 0.83 per cent a year for the past decade) that would see the population increase to 58,080 by 2060. A population this size would need a water supply of 7524 M/L a year.
The second scenario looked at a high growth rate of 1.3 per cent a year, that would see Orange's population grow to 67,719 and require 8,790 M/L a year.
Taking climate change into account, Orange's current water supply would fall short under both scenarios.
However, with the addition of the proposed Stage Two of the Blackman's Creek Stormwater Harvesting Scheme - modelling predicts there will be enough water for a medium growth rate scenario until 2060.
"This will require vigilance in protecting the current water supply, maintaining a water saving culture in the community and requiring all new development to be as efficient with water as possible," council Senior Planner Craig Mortell wrote in the report.
The effects of climate change will also need "continual review and monitoring".
The modelling's reliance on the second stage of the Blackmans Creek Stormwater Harvesting Scheme is controversial, however, with environmental groups opposing the the plan.
They say it will create a "high risk of adverse ecological harm" to Summer Hill Creek, including to the creek's platypus population.
Vice president of Summer Hill Creekcare Denis Marsh says water extraction under the proposed Stage Two plan could be more than three times greater than under Stage One harvesting.
"Summer Hill Creek has been acknowledged as being under stress for more than two decades and suffering severe degradation. Significantly increasing extraction will compound this stress," he said.
Former Mayor Reg Kidd has previously defended the plan, saying water could only be harvested during a strong flow on the river.
Alternative futures
Mr Marsh argues a new dam to create more water storage for Orange would be a better alternative to the Blackmans Creek Stormwater Harvesting Scheme.
He says enough water has spilled over Suma Park Dam in the past 12 months to fill Suma Park Dam more than 2.6 times.
"Orange just doesn't have enough storage capacity," he said.
It doesn't make make a lot of sense to spend all that money on storage for Orange if (Suma Park Dam) is not going to overflow.
- Orange City Council Technical Services Director Ian Greenham
"It has one of the smallest storages for a regional city of anywhere in the state. Once the storage is filled they can't collect any more.
"The principal of water storage is that you collect water when it's plentiful and that holds you over during the dry periods. But (council's) storage doesn't allow them to do that, it's not large enough.
"The pipeline to the Macquarie River is sitting dormant and so are all the stormwater harvesting schemes because there's nowhere to put the water. "
Mr Greenham says that while a new storage dam for Orange has been considered, it makes more sense to have a bigger dam at Lake Rowlands that Orange can take water from.
"In a normal season, Lake Rowlands will overflow about three, four, fives times a year, while Suma Park has pretty much only overflowed about once every five years.
"It doesn't make make a lot of sense to spend all that money on storage for Orange if (Suma Park Dam) is not going to overflow."
President of the Central West Environment Council Cilla Kinross believes there's a better solution to Orange's water woes, which would benefit the environment and the people of Orange - limit population growth.
"Everyone on the council thinks that Orange should grow - and I just don't get it," she said
"I don't see how they can justify that with the resources that we've got in this area. Why do we need to be a big city?
"If you actually asked people in Orange whether Orange should be a lot bigger, I think people would say no. Why should it be bigger? We have everything we need here now.
"Population combined with consumption is what causes the destruction of the environment. There has to be a limit somewhere."
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