GROWTH in the mid to high teens is prediction for Orange's housing market for 2022 by Propertyology's head of research Simon Pressley.
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Mr Pressley echoed recent comments by Orange real estate agents predicting the limited amount of housing stock was likely to keep the growth rate healthy.
"Orange has already been one of Australia's best property market performers over the last five to six years. Of the eight capital cities, only Hobart has performed better," Mr Pressley said.
"Propertyology's analysis of local fundamentals has us forecasting 2022 median house price growth in the mid-high teens."
Mr Pressley, who describes himself as a 'contrarian' on his website, was commenting on sentiment suggesting the heat will come out of the property market this year, saying that may be the case in Sydney and Melbourne, which had a slight increase in supply in the last quarter of 2021.
"Recent commentary regarding extra housing supply hitting the market in [quarter four last year] is very much Sydney-Melbourne centric," he said, adding during that period, Sydney buyers had an extra 11 per cent of stock to choose from while Melbourne rose to 15 per cent.
"Over the same period, Orange has seen 41 per cent reduction in resale supply," Mr Pressley said.
"It is a similar story for the rental market.
"The current 0.4 percent vacancy rate in Orange means there is hardly anything available and intense upward pressure on rents will persist for quite some time yet. Sydney and Melbourne have the softest rental markets in Australia."
Mr Pressley said demand in Orange will continue to be driven by "strong household finances, a continuation of its robust economy and greater priority placed on home becoming one's own oasis".
"Propertyology expects existing owner-occupiers to be the most dominant buyer demographic in Orange. Households have the equity and cash flow capacity in their budgets to upgrade," he said.
"Locals adapting to a more relaxed work-from-home lifestyle along with some out-of-towners relocating to Orange will also drive the market."
Mr Pressley said the local economy in Orange has performed much better than most capital cities for several years.
"Health, agriculture, viticulture, tourism, mining and construction will continue to underpin stability in this great regional city for a long time yet."
He also described forecast interest rises by 2024 as "a storm in tea cup".
"They'll go up at some stage over the next couple of years, but they'll still be ridiculously cheap. Most mortgage holders wisely set their budgets years ago to routinely pay more than the minimum loan repayment anyway.
"Consequently, redraw and offset accounts are flush with cash."
Mr Pressley was a Real Estate Institute of Australia Hall of Fame inductee in 2015.
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