Welcome to the Central Western Daily's Wallerawang Landscaping Mid-West Cup season preview.
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Now... we're aware that one round has already passed, but based on how some of our other predictions are going, we felt it was fair to grab a week's worth of data before running this.
With only five teams competing this season, the analyses becomes a little more straight forward.
Despite losing in round one, the Oberon Tigers entered the campaign as a genuine heavyweight, having won the premiership in 2020 and retaining a large part of their roster.
Kurt Beahan's Orange United Warriors weren't far off last season, losing to the Tigers by six in a grand-final qualifier... they will surely be in the mix.
Cal Flanagan's CSU Mungoes last won the title in 2019, and after falling short at Carrington Park in September, will be primed to go one better.
There's also a new team in the competition this year... enter the Portland Colts. Jake Gale and Kyle Willmott join forces to lead the team into battle, bringing a host of experienced players with them.
Lastly, the Lithgow Bears await at Tony Luchetti. It's fair to say the Bears haven't put the results on the board in recent times, but that's not due to lack of effort. With a sizeable squad and some recruits from Kandos, they could surprise a few people.
OBERON TIGERS:
COACH: Dallas Booth
SQUAD: 1. Lochie Gilmore 2. Callum Limon 3. Zane Rowlandson 4. Jacob Howes 5. Phoenix Cooper Beattie 6. Ryan Thompson 7. Jake Foley 8. Greg Behan 9. Caylib Marston 10. Luke Christie Johnston 11. Jamie Arriola 12. Ty Simmons 13. Charlie Bailey 14. Kane Arriola 15. Boe Biles 16. Trent Guihot 17. Nathan Booth 18. Wayne Sellers 19. Charlie Gascoigne 20. Spencer Mangan 21. Dallas Booth 22. Riccie Arriola 23. Michael Slattery 24. James Rich 25. Jayden Fagg 26. Blake Fitzpatrick
PLAYER TO WATCH: The returning Greg Beahan certainly comes to mind, but we'll opt for zippy hooker, Caylib Marston... the young gun wreaked havoc in the grand final last season, and with another off-season under his belt, should be in good touch again. Josh Rivett and David Sellers have both left for Panthers, meaning Marstin - as well as Luke Christie Johnston - will need to pick up the slack.
2020 FINISH: Premiers
PREDICTED FINISH: Fourth
It's hard to read too much into a round one clash, but things didn't look good for the Tigers to kick things off. You've got to assume they'll improve after a 30-6 loss to the Colts, but can they bounce back to the top of the pecking order? we think not.
Going back-to-back isn't just hard at the professional level, it's a tall order in any competition.
The departure of Rivett and Sellers can't be overstated, and while Blake Fitzpatrick is trending to return from a torn hamstring at the midway point of the season, there's still a bit of work to do for the tigers.
The difference in quality from first to second is about as small as you'll see, making this year's competition very hard to pick. Oberon is a quality side, but let's take a gamble.
LITHGOW BEARS
COACH: Ben Spittles
SQUAD: Aaron Pollard, Andrew Garbutt, Andrew Henderson, Ben Blanchard, Ben Spittles, Blake Barnett, Blake Collins, Charles Haangana, Daneil Coleman, Douglas Wright, Dylan Williams, Ethan Parsons, Lachlan Parsons, Aerly Piper, Grant Leslie, Jacob Murray, Jacob Monaghan, Jarrod Northy, Johnny Aiaga, Joseph Ward, Joshua Fisher, Matthew White, Nathan 'Oakland Raiders' Annetts, Peter Lewis, Ryan Thurlow, Ryan Tyndall, Zebeadee Farr, Jayton Boyton.
PLAYER TO WATCH: Hard to go past Ethan Parsons. He's been somewhat of an unsung hero for Kandos in the last handful of seasons, and looks to be one of the more talented players on this Bears roster. If he's able to be consistent, he's likely the side's MVP at the end of the year.
2020 FINISH: Sixth
PREDICTED FINISH: Sixth
This pick doesn't necessarily mean the Bears will be disgraced in every contest, it's just a testament to the quality they have to contend with.
Lithgow has named a big squad for this season and will benefit greatly from that, but the issue in the past hasn't been cattle, it's been performance.
Whether you like it or not, the Bears haven't been up to scratch, but it would be nice to see them jag a game or two in 2021.
Kandos withdrawing from the competition will help them, but it's hard to see the Bears winning a game this winter.
CSU MUNGOES
COACH: Cal Flanagan
SQUAD: Jacob Watkin, Adam Booth, Kyle Welsh, Callum Flanagan, Joe Coady, Lachlan Balcombe, Blake Schaefer, Matt Knight, Lachlan Wilson, Bryton Thackeray, Braydon Wicks, Billy Fixter, Tyler Murphy, Keon Gillespie, Rylee Lew, Joseph Heien, Ray Sargent, Zac Hunt, Finlay Grabham, Joe Fixter, Darcy Abel, Kurt Norton, Robert Brown, Jordan O'Shea, Will Seimer, Michael Latu.
PLAYER TO WATCH: It's Michael Latu all day. The students surprisingly jagged the St Pat's speedster in the lead-up to the season, and after making a home in Group 10, should be able to make an instant impact at Diggings Oval.
2020 FINISH: Second
PREDICTED FINISH: Third
We can't stress enough how much of a log-jam there's going to be at the top of this ladder... you can barely separate these sides.
CSU looks fairly similar to last year and will welcome the return of their Panthers/Pat's recruits from the previous winter.
Braydon Wicks, Fin Grabham, Zach Hunt and Adam Booth were monumental for the students in 2020, and bringing them back only bolsters their stocks.
In addition to that, the usual suspects like Jacob Watkin, Cal Flanagan, Matt Knight and Blake Schaefer all return. But, we say goodbye to Snak Leach-Demon... kings stay kings.
Anyway, back on topic... the Mungoes are a quality side, but they've had their fun. A premiership in 2019 was big for them, as was a grand-final berth last season.
But, with Orange United all the better after a year under their belt, as well as return of Portland, we'll tip the students to sink back to third.
ORANGE UNITED WARRIORS
COACH: Jacob Condello
SQUAD: 1. Matty Fuller 2. Jacob Sutherland 3. Dion Jones 4. Kurt Beahan 5. Ben French 6. Steve Lane 7. Jake Kelly 8. Will Cusack 9. Jase Edwards 10. Kane Smith 11. Lionel Vanderwal 12. Kyle Darcy 13. Michael Newman 14. Dale Jones 15. Nick Phillips 16. Doc Livingstone 17. Tevita Lucas 18. Mervyn Mackay 19. Tyrell Charters 20. Trey Lucas
PLAYER TO WATCH: Tyrell Charters is our pick, and that's hardly a surprise. Without Ethan Bereyne, Charters becomes the most devastating ball runner on this side, and is even more valuable due to his versatility. He can play virtually anywhere on the paddock, and breaks tackles for fun. If he hasn't put away too many beers over the summer, he'll return to be a wrecking ball again.
2020 FINISH: Third
PREDICTED FINISH: Second
The brothers go one better in 2021, but don't go all the way.
Jake Kelly in the halves shapes as a boom recruit for the men in teal, and new and improved versions of Lionel Vanderwal and Will Cusack will help.
The query with United this winter - as it was last year - is mental toughness.
Kurt Beahan spent all of 2020 speaking about composure and discipline, and while it's likely to improve under new head coach Jacob Condello, it could be their undoing at crucial stages.
PORTLAND COLTS
COACH: Jake Gale, Kyle Willmott
SQUAD: 1. Shannon Rhodes 2.Jayden Hardie 3.Grant Rhodes 4. Neville Turner 5.Shane Mcdonagh 6.Ethan Barker 7.Josh Jones 8.Liam Walsh 9.Dane Nicholson 10.Hayden Cornwell, 11. Kyle Wilmott 12.Brad Osmotherly 13. Jake Gale 14. Kyle Witherspoon 15. Cody Duncan 16. Byron Wilson 17. Lawrence Orford 18. Josh McGuinness 19. Nick Miller 20. Jamie McManus
PLAYER TO WATCH: There's a few blokes we could go with, but we'll take Nick Miller off the bench. He only confirmed his availability for the Colts the week before round one, but is a big plus for Portland. The back rower played for the Bears throughout the 2020 season, and was clearly their best player.
2020 FINISH: Didn't play
2021 FINISH: Premiers
This side is built to succeed in this competition. There's a stack of names who have winning histories in the Mid-West cup, at an array of different clubs.
Grant Rhodes won a premiership with Blackheath in 2018, and is a bona fide Mid-West Cup journeyman... and a good one at that.
Hayden Cornwell was part of the 2017 Wallerawang Warriors who took out CSU in the grand final.
Kyle Willmott's resume speaks for itself... he's been bullying blokes in the bush since he pulled the boots on.
Jake Gale is a nice addition to the side as well, and should be better off after a year at Barbarians.
The roster doesn't scream talent, but in this competition, experience goes a long way.
You can't ignore the result they put together in round one, and if they improve throughout the season, they'll be one of the major players.
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