The February 11, 2017 date means the plebiscite is now about five months away. Both sides now have time to make campaign plans, although the yes campaign is still distracted by its efforts to prevent the plebiscite occurring. The proposed date is very early in the year, and pre-poll voting will begin during January, the holiday period. The final two weeks of the campaign will overlap with return to school. Which side the early date will benefit is unclear.

The yes and no campaigns will each receive $7.5 million to buy advertising and employ staff mainly. Each will add many millions to that figure in private funding through individual and corporate donations. The question of to whom the public funding is given still needs to be resolved, however. Let's assume that the government will either form or authorise yes and no committees after consultation, as was the case for the 1999 republic campaign. Once that happens the shape of the campaign, including the key leading figures will be clearer.

If 1999 is the model, then there should also be a separately funded and independent government information campaign of at least equal size. Remember the yes and no campaigns are never information campaigns but campaign-winning exercises, which is very different. But it is not easy, as 1999 shows, to present independent and unbiased information on a highly contested topic to the satisfaction of both sides as facts and language remain in dispute.

All the indications are that this plebiscite campaign will be a very big and fiercely contested struggle. Both sides will pull out all stops, as happened in 1999. This means that every public figure willing to play their part will be called upon to influence voters. As 1999 showed, there is a lot at stake. A yes vote will effectively mean legal same-sex marriage. A no vote means no change for decades.

In 1999, the lead figures were Kerry Jones of Australians for Constitutional Monarchy and Malcolm Turnbull of the Australian Republican Movement (purpose-built organisations for the issue). This time it looks like the lead roles will be played by the Australian Christian Lobby, a general lobby group, led by Lyle Shelton, and the single issue lobby group Australian Marriage Equality, whose chairman is independent NSW parliamentarian Alex Greenwich. Both Shelton and Greenwich are quite well known but not nearly the public figure that Turnbull was in 1999.

Just who plays other lead roles may depend on the membership of the yes and no committees. Membership will be selected strategically to send messages to particular sections of the community. They will attempt to be politically diverse, for instance. And the yes committee will almost certainly include a leading church-aligned figure, while the no committee will include a secular figure as it won't want to be seen as just a church push. Perception will be crucial.

The churches are declaring their hand. The Anglican Church has described the plebiscite as a matter of personal conscience, but the Catholic Church does not see it that way.