The key Iraqi city of Ramadi, barely 100 kilometres from the capital Baghdad, has fallen to the Islamic State terror group in a dramatic development that defence experts and Australian officials warn reveals the deep flaws that remain in Iraq's military.
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Despite months of air strikes and "advise-and-assist" help from foreign troops including Australian commandos, the Iraqi army fled the provincial capital in Anbar, handing full control of the city to Islamic State militants in the worst setback of the year in the war-torn nation.
Senior sources told Fairfax Media it was unlikely to prompt a rethink of the strategy being pursued by Australia and its allies, but they said it underscored the long road ahead for the Iraqi security forces – and by extension Australian and other coalition troops who are trying to get them into shape to drive the militants out of their country.
One official said that the loss of Ramadi demonstrated that any talk of retaking the Islamic State's northern Iraq stronghold of Mosul in the foreseeable future was just "empty talk", with the Iraqi army still suffering from poor leadership and low morale.
As recently as February, some US officials were openly talking about a push to retake Mosul, the largest city held by the Islamic State, in April or May.
But defence planners are now grappling with the fact that the Iraqi army is still prone to turning and running when faced with significant pressure. Their collapse in Ramadi has once again showed that the most effective force against the Islamic State remains the irregular Shiite militias.
The militias – many of whom answer to Iran – have not been used in heavily Sunni Anbar province in part because of fears that they could stoke sectarian clashes, but Baghdad has now reversed this policy, with the agreement of Sunni leaders in Anbar, out of desperation in light of the rout in Ramadi.
Australia is deploying about 330 troops to train the Iraqis at Taji base north of Baghdad, while gradually withdrawing the commandos who are "advising and assisting" the Iraqis. The mission is planned for two years with a review of progress after the first year.
Some Australian commandos are stationed at al-Asad Air Base, about 100 kilometres west of Ramadi, but Fairfax Media understands the fall of Ramadi does not put them at greater immediate risk because they are able to move safely back and forth to Baghdad by air.
However, al-Asad base has come under attack previously, most seriously in February when dozens of militants including suicide bombers breached the perimeter, though they were quickly killed by Iraqi forces.
Peter Jennings, the executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said the loss of Ramadi "has to be read as a serious setback compared with the sometimes unrealistically upbeat assessments we've been getting from the US about progress".
Mr Jennings, who is also an external adviser to the government on the upcoming Defence White Paper, said it suggested "we're in for an even longer haul than has been the Obama administration's estimate".
He said the best chance for improvement would be if Washington were prepared to send thousands more troops to "stiffen the resolve of the Iraqis" but currently this appeared unlikely.
Former army officer Rodger Shanahan, now with the Lowy Institute, told Sky News: "Unfortunately the Iraqi military appears once again to have disappointed."
He said Shiite militias were "motivated, the kind of people who want to see a unitary Iraqi state" and were proving the most effective fighters in Iraq.
