ANALYSIS

On impact, Boomer walks free. On consequence, he walks the plank.

Exoneration and suspension are both clearly plausible outcomes when the Match Review Panel assesses week two of the finals. While the report of Fremantle's Zac Dawson for striking is officially the only incident at this stage that will be considered, there is no doubt Brent Harvey could be punished for the second time in a month.

Last time, the fact Harvey was sidelined for an elimination final was considered a high-stakes punishment. But that would be trifling compared with him being rubbed out for a preliminary final, as could occur for North Melbourne's looming trip to Sydney.

Joel Selwood is simultaneously Harvey's biggest help in avoiding suspension and his biggest hindrance to doing so, irrespective of what he would say to AFL investigators if asked about the clash last Friday night.

The Geelong captain was pulling up near centre half-forward after just delivering a handball into the centre corridor when Harvey jumped into a bump that, due to a head clash, cut the rugged midfielder just above his eyebrow.

The good news for Harvey is that Selwood kept his feet and did not even grimace after the impact. Rightly or wrongly, the panel places a lot of stock in the reaction of the victim in determining the level of impact and whether it warrants a charge.

The bad news for Harvey is that a few seconds later, Selwood started bleeding profusely from the wound.

AFL operations boss Mark Evans' post-season review of the panel should examine the anomaly of one of the three categories for determining penalties relating to the level of impact, yet the panel instead often focuses on the level of consequence.

Cats spearhead Tom Hawkins escaped penalty for a "jumper punch" in week one of the finals because the impact was deemed to be below the threshold for a charge. Yet if you were to compare that strike, to the chin of Hawthorn's Ben Stratton, with Harvey's bump on Selwood, few would argue that Hawkins hit harder.

The difference was that while Hawkins struck the chin of the stoic Stratton, the veteran Kangaroo made contact with Selwood in an area that's notoriously susceptible to cuts, as boxers would attest.

Given that Selwood was stopping and was not in contention to gain possession, there was little justification for Harvey to lay a shepherd-type bump on him. His cause, if charged, would also be harmed by the fact he jumped into Selwood. That Harvey jumped was understandable, given his diminutive stature, but in the eyes of the panel, that all but guarantees him a grading of at least reckless.

A classification of reckless conduct, low impact and high contact would, after the addition of Harvey's 10 per cent loading and 41 carry-over points, trigger a penalty of 288.5 points. Even with a guilty plea, that would sideline him for the rest of the year, which would include the grand final if the Kangaroos stunned the top-placed Swans at ANZ Stadium.

North will be hoping the panel takes the same approach to a high bump on Selwood that it did in round 11, when he was felled by Sydney's Adam Goodes. In that instance, the Cats' captain was knocked over backwards, but the panel said the impact was trifling. On Friday night, Selwood clearly held his feet but was left sporting a cut above his eyebrow.

For all the fury over Nat Fyfe's round-two suspension for a bump on Gold Coast's Michael Rischitelli, the ban was technically correct, if not morally correct, due to an off-season rule change that made players who choose to bump liable for damage caused by head clashes. The impact to Selwood was clearly inferior than what was absorbed by Rischitelli, but both left the field bloodied.

There is precedent for the panel to spare a player whose action has cut an opponent. In mid-2010, Carlton's Chris Judd was cleared for throwing his elbow back, cutting Fremantle captain Matthew Pavlich below his eye. That decision was, however, generally considered to be at best a blunder, or at worst a case of a superstar – he won that year's Brownlow Medal – receiving special treatment.

Harvey told AFL Game Day that watching replays of the incident during Saturday night's Fremantle-Port Adelaide match, amid speculation of a suspension, haunted him as he later tried to sleep. The release of the panel's report will go a long way to determining how he – and probably North coach Brad Scott – sleeps on Monday night.

MATCH REVIEW PANEL – FINALS WEEK 2 PREDICTIONS
Brent Harvey (NM) rough conduct to Joel Selwood (Geel). No charge; insufficient impact.
Reported: Zac Dawson (Fre) striking Robbie Gray (PA). No charge; legitimate attempt to spoil.