“Australia on the Move”, a report by the Residential Development Council, shows Orange as having the lowest predicted growth rate of all the areas studied in NSW.

It also says there is an oversupply of housing and just 59 new dwellings per year will need to be built to supply enough homes for the next five years.

The figures were met with surprise and scepticism by local builders including Mick Fabar.

“If there was an oversupply of housing we’d have a whole lot of empty houses somewhere, and we don’t,” Mr Fabar said.

“There are maybe 200 or 250 houses being built every year. They’re obviously off the mark. I would think they’ve left a fair bit out of the equation. I would guess they haven’t fully grasped the potential of Orange for growth.”

Mr Fabar and builders Luke Knight and Mick Banks said the hospital redevelopment and the expansion of Cadia Mine were expected to keep demand for houses strong.

Real estate agent Paul Cox said the report “doesn’t add up”.

“There’s not an undersupply [of housing], but I believe there’s a reasonable supply for a reasonable demand. Economically, the place is not winding down. It’s winding up,” he said.

The predicted growth figures in the report, released yesterday, are significantly lower than those of the Department of Planning and the Western Research Institute.

Residential Development Council executive director Caryn Kakas agreed the growth figure of four per cent was surprisingly low, with the NSW population expected to grow by 20 per cent in the same period.

“The figures predominantly used were out of the most recent allotment of Australian Bureau of Statistics data. It’s a reasonably conservative approach to what’s going to happen with growth,” she said.

Orange City Council communications manager Nick Redmond said there was often a difficulty with statistics applied to smaller areas like Orange and said council would rely on growth projections from the Western Research Institute.

“It might give some broad trends for large areas like Sydney and Melbourne, but it doesn’t always give a meaningful picture for places like Orange. The Western Research Institute is local and they understand more about what’s happening in the community. We’re comfortable with those figures,” he said.